Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States

Nature Climate Change, 5(8), 748–752, (2015)

Average reductions in summertime electric generating capacity by mid-century (2040–2060) for vulnerable facilities in the WECC region.

Publication info

Recommended citation:

Bartos, M. & Chester, M. (2015). Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the western United States. Nature Climate Change, 5(8), 748–752. doi:10.1038/nclimate2648

Available at:

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2648

Journal impact factor (2019):

20.893

Abstract

Climate change may constrain future electricity generation capacity by increasing the incidence of extreme heat and drought events. We estimate reductions to generating capacity in the Western United States based on long-term changes in streamflow, air temperature, water temperature, humidity and air density. We simulate these key parameters over the next half-century by joining downscaled climate forcings with a hydrologic modelling system. For vulnerable power stations (46% of existing capacity), climate change may reduce average summertime generating capacity by 1.1–3.0%, with reductions of up to 7.2–8.8% under a ten-year drought. At present, power providers do not account for climate impacts in their development plans, meaning that they could be overestimating their ability to meet future electricity needs.